逾越節緊張局勢預示著伊朗與以色列的影子戰爭擴大

Event Type: 
Preaching/Talk
Date: 
24/04/2023(Monday) AM 11:00

Passover tensions portend widening of Iran’s ‘Shadow War’ with Israel
Published on: 14.4.2023
By: David Parsons, ICEJ Vice President & Senior Spokesman

Muslim incitement over the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem led to a spike in violence during Passover this past week, with three Israelis and an Italian tourist killed in Palestinian terror attacks, while rocket barrages were fired at Israel from multiple directions, including Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. The escalation came as Israelis were taking a brief holiday respite from the heated domestic debate over judicial reforms, leaving many Israelis concerned that the internal bickering has left the nation looking vulnerable in the eyes of its adversaries, particularly Iran. While the rocket and terror attacks at Passover followed an old pattern from recent years, they also delivered a fresh warning that Iran’s ‘shadow war’ with Israel could easily slip into open conflict.

There were several factors behind the recent tensions in Israel, some familiar and some new.
First, the convergence of Passover and Ramadan this April made it almost inevitable that a confrontation would happen. Both holidays have tended to stir religious passions in recent years, especially as radical Muslim elements have repeatedly used false claims that Jews are endangering al-Aqsa as a pretext for violence. This well-worn canard has been used for over a century now, particularly at Passover, to incite violence against the Jewish people even in pre-state Israel. Recall that the first instance of this occurred at Passover/Easter in 1920, when an Arab mob burst out of the Old City of Jerusalem in a pogrom against Jews sparked by the al-Aqsa lie. It happened again in 1929, leading to the massacre of 69 Jews in Hebron. And in recent years, it has been happening at both the spring and fall Jewish feasts, including the 11-day rocket war and widespread rioting that took place around Shavuot in May 2021.

Secondly, there is little doubt that Israel’s intense national dispute over judicial reforms has made the country look weak and exposed in the eyes of its regional enemies. The new Israeli government, and most notably its ultra-religious elements, also are not so well liked in the liberal West, only adding to the appearance of vulnerability.
Rocket attack in shlomi
Third, there already has been a prolonged spate of Palestinian terror attacks for more than a year now, claiming 33 Israeli lives last year and 19 so far this year. This prompted the IDF to launch Operation “Break the Wave”, an ongoing series of incursions in the West Bank to root out Palestinian terror cells, including new groups of ‘next generation’ terrorists going under the name “Lion’s Den.” Many of these younger cells are not necessarily affiliated with the traditional Palestinian militias of Fatah and Hamas, but it is clear they are being funded and enabled by Iran – which brings us to the real culprit behind the recent surge in rockets and terror.

The final and biggest factor by far in the recent Passover/Ramadan tensions is Iran, which is deliberately seeking multiple ways to threaten and attack Israel through proxy militias that afford them plausible deniability and thereby avoid direct confrontation with the IDF.

For more than a decade now, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war over Tehran’s renegade nuclear program and its openly stated goal to eliminate Israel from the world map. Israel’s military and intelligence agencies have chalked up an impressive number of victories in this covert war, which dates back to the Stuxnet computer virus that temporarily crippled parts of Iran’s nuclear program in 2010. The ledger also includes successful sabotage attacks on numerous nuclear and missile facilities in Iran, the Mossad’s embarrassing theft of its nuclear archive hidden in a Tehran warehouse, and the targeting of IRGC commanders overseeing the growing network of Iranian proxy militias abroad. With the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, and Iran’s intervention to prop up the Assad regime, this shadow war expanded to include hundreds of Israeli air strikes all across Syria to prevent the entrenchment of Iranian military units and weaponry that could be used to directly threaten Israel.

Iranian leaders have been under pressure to even this lopsided score, but have largely failed in numerous attempts to target Israeli diplomats, businessmen and tourists in foreign lands. Yet they have made substantial progress in their long-term strategy to encircle Israel with a ring of loyal proxy militias armed with huge arsenals of rockets and missiles, and the latest versions of its lethal drones. The tentacles of this aggressive Iranian octopus can be found in Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Iranian-led forces in Syria, various Islamist militias in Iraq, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen – each reportedly possessing extended-range rockets and drones capable of reaching all corners of Israel.

haniyeh and nasrallah in beirut-twitter
This past week, however, marked the first time that Iran’s subsidiaries launched rockets at Israel from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria over successive days, plus drones from two directions, demonstrating to Israelis they could soon face a dreaded multi-front rocket war. This coordinated message was intentional, given that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh met with Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut the day before Hamas militiamen fired 34 rockets at northern Israel from the Lebanese coastal city of Tyre. The Palestinian refugee camps in southern Lebanon were always considered Fatah-land. But now it appears Hizbullah has permitted Hamas to recruit these Palestinians and establish a significant military presence in south Lebanon to threaten Israel from the north, while allowing Nasrallah to deny any responsibility for their actions.

Iran also has launched a surprise diplomatic offensive to repair relations with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states, which threatens to derail the Abraham Accords right when Israel was seeking an historic breakthrough with the Saudis. The radical Shi’ite regime looked on as Israel began building a regional coalition against Iranian dominance over the Middle East, but now Tehran appears to have pulled off a coup by beating Jerusalem to Riyadh.

With the United States pre-occupied with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its intensifying global rivalry with China, Iran senses America is retreating from the Middle East and that Israel can now be isolated in the region. Thus, they tested the waters of Israel’s increasing solitude with the brazen multi-front assault at Passover.

Iran’s blatant escalation of the conflict also quickly stirred waves of anti-Israel incitement worldwide, especially on the web, feeding Tehran’s belief that Israel also can be isolated internationally. Chillingly, chants of “Death to Jews” could be heard echoing off Brandenburg Gate in Berlin this week.
Until now, Iran has been losing its shadow war with Israel. But the ayatollahs are now starting to think they may fare better with open warfare.

逾越節緊張局勢預示著伊朗與以色列的“影子戰爭”擴大
發表於:14.4.2023
作者:大衛柏森斯,ICEJ 副總裁兼高級發言人
上週逾越節期間,穆斯林對耶路撒冷阿克薩清真寺的煽動導致暴力事件激增,三名以色列人和一名意大利遊客在巴勒斯坦人恐怖襲擊中喪生,同時從多個方向向以色列發射火箭彈,包括加沙、黎巴嫩和敘利亞。 事態升級之際,以色列人正從國內關於司法改革的激烈辯論中短暫休假,這讓許多以色列人擔心,內部爭吵使該國在其對手(尤其是伊朗)眼中顯得脆弱。 雖然逾越節的火箭彈襲擊和恐怖襲擊沿襲了近年來的老套路,但它們也發出了新的警告,即伊朗與以色列的“影子戰爭”很容易陷入公開衝突。
以色列最近的緊張局勢背後有幾個因素,有些是熟悉的,有些是新的。

首先,今年四月逾越節和齋戒月的交匯使得發生對抗幾乎是不可避免的。 近年來,這兩個節日都傾向於激起宗教熱情,尤其是激進的穆斯林分子一再使用謊稱猶太人正在危及阿克薩作為暴力的藉口。 這個陳舊的謠言已經被使用了一個多世紀,尤其是在逾越節,甚至在建國前的以色列煽動對猶太人的暴力行為。 回想一下,這種情況的第一個例子發生在 1920 年的逾越節/復活節,當時一群阿拉伯暴徒衝出耶路撒冷老城,在阿克薩謊言引發的針對猶太人的大屠殺中。 1929 年再次發生,導致 69 名猶太人在希伯倫被屠殺。 近年來,這種情況一直發生在春季和秋季的猶太節期期間,包括 2021 年 5 月在五旬節前後發生的為期 11 天的火箭戰爭和大範圍騷亂。

其次,毫無疑問,以色列在司法改革方面的激烈民族爭端已經讓該國在其地區敵人的眼中顯得軟弱和暴露無遺。 以色列新政府,尤其是它的極端宗教分子,在自由主義的西方也不那麼受歡迎,這只會增加其脆弱性的表象。

第三,一年多來巴勒斯坦人的恐怖襲擊已經持續了一年多,去年奪去了 33 名以色列人的生命,今年迄今奪去了 19 人的生命。 這促使以色列國防軍發起了“破浪”行動,這是在西岸持續進行的一系列反恐行動,目的是剷除巴勒斯坦人恐怖組織,包括以“獅子巢穴”為名的新“下一代”恐怖分子團體。 許多這些年輕的組織不一定隸屬於法塔赫和哈馬斯等傳統的巴勒斯坦人民兵組織,但很明顯,它們得到了伊朗的資助和支持——這讓我們找到了最近火箭彈和恐怖活動激增背後的真正罪魁禍首。
迄今為止,在最近的逾越節/齋月緊張局勢中,最後也是最大的因素是伊朗,它故意尋求多種方式通過代理民兵威脅和攻擊以色列,使他們有可能推諉,從而避免與以色列國防軍直接對抗。

十多年來,以色列和伊朗一直在就德黑蘭叛變的核計劃及其公開宣稱的將以色列從世界地圖上消滅的目標進行一場影子戰爭。 以色列的軍事和情報機構在這場秘密戰爭中取得了令人印象深刻的勝利,這場戰爭可以追溯到 2010 年暫時癱瘓部分伊朗核計劃的 Stuxnet 計算機病毒。還包括對眾多核設施和導彈設施的成功破壞伊朗計劃,摩薩德令人尷尬地獲取了其隱藏在德黑蘭倉庫中的核檔案,以及監督伊朗代理民兵在國外不斷擴大的網絡的伊斯蘭革命衛隊指揮官成為目標。 隨著敘利亞內戰的爆發,以及伊朗為支持阿薩德政權而進行的干預,這場影子戰爭擴大到包括以色列在敘利亞全境進行數百次空襲,以防止伊朗軍事單位和可用於直接威脅以色列的武器的防禦工事。

伊朗領導人一直承受著這種不平衡的比分的壓力,但在針對以色列外交官、商人和外國遊客的多次嘗試中,基本上都以失敗告終。 然而,他們在其長期戰略方面取得了實質性進展,即用一群忠誠的代理民兵包圍以色列,這些民兵裝備著巨大的火箭和導彈武庫,以及最新版本的致命無人機。 這種好鬥的伊朗章魚的觸手可以在加沙的哈馬斯和伊斯蘭聖戰組織、黎巴嫩的真主黨、敘利亞的伊朗領導的部隊、伊拉克的各種伊斯蘭民兵以及也門的胡塞叛亂分子中找到——據報導,每個人都擁有增程火箭和 能夠到達各個角落的無人機以色列。

貝魯特推特上的哈尼耶和納斯魯拉

然而,過去一周標誌著伊朗子公司連續幾天首次從加沙、黎巴嫩和敘利亞向以色列發射火箭彈,並從兩個方向發射無人機,向以色列人表明他們可能很快將面臨一場可怕的多線火箭彈戰爭。 鑑於哈馬斯領導人伊斯梅爾哈尼亞在貝魯特會見真主黨領導人哈桑納斯魯拉前一天從黎巴嫩沿海城市提爾向以色列北部發射了 34 枚火箭彈,這一協調一致的信息是有意為之的。 黎巴嫩南部的巴勒斯坦人難民營一直被認為是法塔赫的領地。 但現在看來,真主黨允許哈馬斯招募這些巴勒斯坦人,並在黎巴嫩南部建立重要的軍事存在,從北部威脅以色列,同時允許納斯魯拉否認對他們的行為承擔任何責任。

伊朗還出人意料地發起了外交攻勢,以修復與沙特阿拉伯和海灣阿拉伯國家的關係,這有可能在以色列尋求與沙特阿拉伯取得歷史性突破時破壞亞伯拉罕協議。 激進的什葉派政權旁觀以色列開始建立區域聯盟反對伊朗在中東的統治地位,但現在德黑蘭似乎通過擊敗耶路撒冷和利雅得來發動政變。

隨著美國全神貫注於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭及其與中國日益激烈的全球競爭,伊朗感覺到美國正在從中東撤退,以色列現在可以在該地區被孤立。 因此,他們通過在逾越節進行無恥的多線攻擊來測試以色列日益孤獨的水域。

伊朗公然升級衝突也迅速在世界範圍內激起了反以色列的煽動浪潮,尤其是在網絡上,這助長了德黑蘭的信念,即以色列也可以在國際上被孤立。 令人不寒而栗的是,本週在柏林的勃蘭登堡門外可以聽到“猶太人受死”的口號。

到目前為止,伊朗一直在輸掉與以色列的影子戰爭。 但是阿亞圖拉們現在開始認為他們在公開戰爭中可能會過得更好。
圖片來源:法新社